Mohan Sinha
25 Jun 2025, 00:35 GMT+10
NEW YORK CITY, New York: U.S. stocks went up and oil prices fell this week as investors hoped that Iran would not block the global supply of oil, even after the United States carried out airstrikes as part of the war between Israel and Iran.
The S&P 500 rose by one percent Monday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average went up by 374 points (0.9 percent) and the Nasdaq gained 0.9 percent. These gains came after a week of market ups and downs due to fears of a wider war.
At first, oil prices jumped by six percent late on June 22, as markets reacted to the U.S. bombings in Iran. But by June 23, oil prices had dropped sharply. U.S. benchmark oil fell 7.2 percent to US$68.51 per barrel after briefly rising above $78. This brought oil prices back near where they were before the fighting started.
Prices fell further after Iran launched missiles at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, used by the U.S. military. Iran said its attack matched the number of bombs dropped by the U.S., possibly suggesting it doesn't want to escalate the war further. Importantly, Iran's actions didn't stop the flow of oil, which is a significant concern for the world economy.
Iran is a big oil producer and controls the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which 20 percent of the world's oil passes. Some experts worried Iran might block it, which would push oil prices much higher. But analysts said this is unlikely since Iran also depends on that route to export oil, especially to China.
Tom Kloza, an oil expert, said blocking the strait would be like burning everything down, something unlikely to happen. Another analyst, Neil Newman, believes the war might stay limited and that markets could return to normal soon. Still, some experts warned that Iran could act unpredictably.
Andy Lipow, a Houston oil analyst, said that if Iran shut down the strait, oil prices could jump to $120–130 a barrel, leading to higher prices for many goods. This would also make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which it has been cautious about due to inflation and trade tensions.
However, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she could support cutting rates next month if inflation stays under control. As a result, Treasury yields dropped slightly, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.33 percent and the 2-year to 3.84 percent.
Tesla's stock surged 8.2 percent after launching a small fleet of self-driving taxis in Austin. But Hims & Hers Health dropped 34.6 percent after Novo Nordisk ended its partnership.
Overall, the S&P 500 closed at 6,025.17, the Dow at 42,581.78, and the Nasdaq at 19,630.97. In global markets, France's CAC 40 fell 0.7 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.7 percent.
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